Showing posts with label Media and Elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Media and Elections. Show all posts

August 31, 2008

Karl Rove’s Strategy for Attacking Obama -How Democrats Can Respond

This piece by Democratic communications analyst James Vega was originally published on August 8, 2008 in "The democratic strategist," and is of the greatest interest today, on the eve of Republican Convention's opening in St.Paul (MN).
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With the recent appointment of Steven Schmidt and several other staffers to the highest levels of the McCain campaign, the political protégés of Karl Rove have now taken almost complete control. As a result Rove’s basic political strategy has been elevated to the core approach of the campaign.

At its heart, Karl Rove’s approach for the last 20 years has been an essentially class-based attack on Democrats – one that portrays them as representing an out-of-touch, educated elite who have little in common with average Americans. In this strategy, individual Democrats are not simply wrong about specific issues; their errors all arise from deep, pathological defects in their basic values and character.

This general strategy can be traced back to the campaigns of Richard Nixon and George Wallace in 1968 and 1972. But one of Rove’s distinct additions was to recognize that attacks on a candidates’ character must be psychologically plausible – they must be fine-tuned to exploit weaknesses the opposing candidate actually appears to reflect in his behavior.

In this regard, Rove has always had an exceptionally sinister aptitude (one that is reminiscent of Hannibal Lector’s perverse but penetrating form of psychological insight) for being able to recognize subtle human weaknesses and frailties. For example, although Al Gore and John Kerry were both products of relatively advantaged, prep school environments and were clearly not working class “ordinary guys”, they were nonetheless quite distinct. On the one hand Gore was vulnerable to being portrayed as somewhat pompous, self-important and egotistic. Kerry, in contrast, invited the caricature of being a long-winded, detached, emotionally remote New England Yankee. The overall class-based frame worked for both men, but the political hit-man’s art lay in recognizing and exploiting the subtle variations between them.

Obama presents an even more complex challenge. Although meditative, professorial, articulate and elegant, he nonetheless does not fit the image of a typical left-wing college professor (or, for that matter, of a Black militant, a well-to-do New York limousine liberal or corrupt Chicago pol).

The solution the Rove team developed, only days after taking control of the McCain campaign, was to portray Obama as a resident of the rarified world of the “Hollywood movie star liberals” – a pampered universe of exclusive health and exercise clubs, expensive hotel suites and fancy bottled water. The implication was that, like other Hollywood stars, Obama must be “self-infatuated and effete” or “vain and out of touch” or “effete, elite and equivocal” – in short, a weak and vain man without real character; a male fashion model living a movie stars’ life and not the real life of ordinary Americans.
This class-based caricature of Obama is important for the McCain campaign because it provides a critical psychological, character-based foundation to support a very disparate set of accusations – that he does not really care about America’s solders, that he lacks real patriotism, that he “plays the race card” and so on. Using this “typical Hollywood liberal” stereotype, it is not even necessary to explicitly contrast Obama with the “heartland virtues” of John McCain who the Rove team directly links with such traditional movie-hero figures as John Wayne.

How can Obama best respond to this line of attack? The kernel of truth which the attack exploits is the fact that Obama is most obviously not an “ordinary” or “average” guy in any meaningful way and any attempt on his part to present himself as such necessarily appears completely unconvincing and condescending.

But it is a profound misunderstanding of “ordinary people” to think that they require a candidate to exactly resemble them in order for him or her to win their respect and support. On the contrary, individuals who excel and achieve success through hard work, perseverance and dedication are greatly admired by most Americans, so long as they continue to genuinely respect and care about ordinary voters if they enter political life. Average voters genuinely admire upward mobility and success if it is honestly and honorably achieved.

And in fact, Obama’s life story provides a powerful core narrative that supports precisely this alternative way of understanding him. It is composed of three elements:

1. A far from easy or pampered early life and a youth marked by confusion, mistakes, bad choices and lack of direction.
2. A remarkable personal turn-around, build on the foundation of the incredibly hard work, perseverance and dedication that is required to get a law degree at a top university.

3. A decision to turn his back on the “easy life” of a professor or private attorney and to try instead to find a role of service to the community.

This is simply not the life story of a typical pampered Hollywood star or vacuous celebrity. On the contrary, it is a quintessentially American success story of youthful error followed by redemption and success through hard work and an ultimate decision to seek a way to contribute to society.

The McCain campaign’s attempt to fit Obama into the “vacuous Hollywood star” framework simply will not stick if Obama’s unique biography can be correctly presented. Between now and the convention, Democrats must make a coordinated and concerted effort to define a simple core narrative along these lines – one that can be driven home every single time the McCain campaign attempts to stigmatize Obama with their utterly fraudulent depiction of his character.

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McCain-Palin's Rebranding of The Party Remains Doubtful

It appears that rejuvenating the image of the Republican party, and making its brand more popular among women is not as easy as it seems. The first polls taken after Palin's choice on Friday show that among Democratic women - including those who, according to mainstream media should have been truly disappointed that Hillary Clinton did not win the Democratic nomination - 9% say Palin makes them more likely to support McCain, 15% LESS likely (Gallup).
According to Rasmussen, women soundly rejected her, 48% to 25% in answering to the question: "Is she ready to be president?
Overall, likely voters expressed a favorable impression of her by a 53/26 margin, but there was a severe gender gap on this: Men embraced her at 58% to 23%, while for women it was 48/30.
The widespread uncertainty about whether Palin is qualified to be president amounts to the lowest vote of confidence in a running mate since the elder George Bush chose then-Indiana senator Dan Quayle to join his ticket in 1988. 
Is that surprising? Only for CNN and FOX pundits (as Frank Rich pointed out in his excellent column yesterday). The long trend of American politics are well-established, and one of them is that women tend to vote Democratic because of Republican Party's staunch opposition to abortion. As a large majority of women are pro-choice, it is only natural that they vote for the party who supports their rights in the political arena. Palin is the darling of pro-life women (and men), a constituency that was skeptical of McCain tepid attitude toward their crusade to outlaw abortion. In this respect, it is another move to consolidate the Republican base, not to hunt in the Democratic pastures.
The problem of this strategy is obvious: this year, the number of citizens who identify with the GOP is much smaller than the number of those who consider themselves Democrats. The gap is about 29% to 37%. This means that bringing to the polls all the faithful supporters of the two parties will translate in a large victory for the Democrats, assuming that Independents split 50-50 between McCain and Obama.

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June 2, 2008

Obama and Clinton viewed in an equally positive light by American media

Washington D.C. - A new study was released Friday by the Project for Excellence in Journalism on the tone of the media coverage of the three candidates still running for the White House; John McCain, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
The research, conducted by the Pew Research Center in partnership with the Joan Shorenstein Center on Press, Politics and Public Policy at Harvard University looked at how various mainstream media outlets have talked about the three Senators since the beginning of the year.
It appears, for example, that the accusations brought forward by the Clinton campaign that media coverage has been more accepting of Barack Obama than of the ex-first lady are not grounded in any data. In fact, the study found that the image of the two democratic candidates that has been portrayed by the media has been equally positive until March and then it has become increasingly negative toward Obama. The report says; "From January 1, just before the Iowa caucuses, through March 9, following the Texas and Ohio contests, the height of the primary season, the dominant personal narratives in the media about Obama and Clinton were almost identical in tone, and were both twice as positive as negative...The trajectory of the coverage, however, began to turn against Obama, and did so well before questions surfaced about his pastor Jeremiah Wright...What’s more, an additional analysis of more general campaign topics suggests the Obama narrative became even more negative later in March, April and May."
In general, both Obama and Clinton have been more successful than John McCain in projecting the image they chose. Obama is viewed as representing change and hope and Clinton is described as being experienced and ready to be president on day one, precisely the message their campaigns have been trying to get across. John McCain, instead, doesn't seem as much in control and the media coverage on him has focused significantly on the fact that he's not a true conservative, something that he's been trying to wipe off, so far unsuccessfully .

April 18, 2008

How ABC Set A Trap To Question Obama's Patriotism

Wednesday night there was the debate in Pennsylvania, considered an important moment before the democratic primary of April 22. Many observers remarked how silly were the questions asked by the two moderators (see, here and here, for example).
However, most pundits failed to note that the question by a member of the public on why Barack Obama doesn't usually wear a flag pin on his jacket was planted by ABC, which hosted the debate, and was in no way a "spontaneous" question surging from the heart of a citizen. What happened was that ABC tracked down Nash McCabe, the woman who asked "I want to know if you believe in the American flag" after she was quoted in a New York Times story about white voters in small-town Latrobe, Pa., being against Obama.
We know that because Joshua Micah Marshall's blog had this: "In this case, the producers put the producers' question into the mouth of a voter, because it made the question seem more authentic, as if people care in large numbers about the flag pin question. That is, the woman was used to legitimize the traditional media's focus on these frankly trivial and, yes, distracting issues."
It may well be that Gibson's and Stephanopoulos's unethical behavior was simply part of the traditional media's focus on trivial and distracting issues, but one might wonder if the long relationship between Stephanopoulos and the Clintons (he worked for Bill Clinton's campaign in 1992 and at the White House later) has really nothing to do with his obvious hostility toward Barack Obama and the plot to question his patriotism. 
In any event, the attack misfired: the latest Rasmussen Reports survey in the state shows Hillary Clinton with 47% of the vote and Barack Obama with 44%. This poll was conducted AFTER the nationally televised debate between the candidates. Last Monday, before the ABC' show, Clinton was leading Obama 50% to 41%.