Only ONE state has switched sides in this map drawn according to the 2004 results: Ohio. That would be enough to give Democrats a majority.As you may recall, a few days ago Marco Polo made a few calculations about the Electoral College (the machinery that assigned the Presidency FOUR TIMES to the losers since 1824). We predicted an easy majority of 273 votes for the Democratic candidate -whoever he or she is- and a possible majority of 298 Electoral Votes, throwing in two winnable swing states such as Nevada and Ohio.
Today, the much-respected Rasmussen Reports offered its evaluation: "If the Presidential election were held today, the Democratic candidate would be poised to win 284 Electoral Votes. That’s 14 more than the minimum needed to capture the White House. The Republican candidate could expect to win 216 Electoral Votes while 38 more would be in the Toss-up category." It appears that 284 is very close to the midpoint between our two forecasts, the low one of 273 and the high one of 298 Electoral Votes. Rasmussen gives as "winnable" by the Democrats even states like Virginia, where they won for the last time in 1964.
As everybody knows, the magic number to enter the White House is 270 (What will happen if each candidate gets 269 votes? Be the first to send the right answer and win our prize). A simple truth: in 2008, the campaign is for the Democrats to lose.
