Even if she is still ahead in Pennsylvania, it appears that Hillary Clinton, facing an uphill battle in the contest to collect enough delegates in the next primaries, is staking her chances to win the nomination on the fight to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations at the convention. Delegate from both States were disqualified because the local party organizations violated DNC rules related to the national schedule of primary elections. Hillary did not campaign there, but her name was the only one on the ballot, and therefore she would add some 300 delegates to the final count, if Michigan and Florida delegations were seated.
“I have no intention of stopping until we finish what we started and until we see what happens in the next ten contests and until we resolve Florida and Michigan,” she told the Washington Post. “And if we don't resolve it, we'll resolve it at the convention — that's what Credentials committees are for.”
It is doubtful that the Credentials committee, where Obama will have more members than Clinton, and where a majority of the 25 appointees by DNC Chairman Howard Dean will side with Obama, could accept Clinton's demand but she could require to vote out a minority report, meaning that both Democratic candidates could have their positions voted on by all seated convention delegates. The prospect of a convention that begins with a contentious vote on a “minority” or “majority” report is “the nightmare scenario," according to many Democratic party insiders. Whoever the candidate, a nomination obtained by a 51-49 margin would mean hell in the party for a long time, and the slimmest chance of winning in November. Such a split might tilt the balance of the election to John McCain (see previous posts 1 to 4, below). A different opinion, by former ambassador Dennis Kux, can be found in this post in From the Field.
