The race for the Democratic nomination can go on for some more days, or weeks, but the final result is no more in doubt. Barack Obama will be the nominee and his victory owes much to the mobilization of young people. But how many are they?
Obama has an overwhelming support among the 17-29 years-old, but this age group is smaller, and less inclined to vote than seniors (who are richer, more motivated by civic duty and less in trouble with the justice system). In 2004, for example, two over-60 citizens voted for every under-29 one, as it happened last Tuesday in North Carolina. In this state, 30% of voters in the Democratic primary were seniors, against 14% of juniors. In Indiana, the ratio was 25% to 17%, while in Pennsylvania it was an amazing 32% to 12%. That means that Obama may have a potent support, and thousand of volunteers working for him, but in the general election the youngsters as a group are far from being the decisive factor.
