In less than a week, the Democratic convention will open in Denver, and before that Obama should pick his Vice-President. The debate over the possible choices has been raging since May, when it became clear that he was the nominee. There was much speculation about Hillary Clinton, but of course this was an impossible choice, for obvious reasons (there must be some mutual respect and trust in the ticket).
Removing Hillary from the short list automatically eliminates every other woman, so the Governor of Kansas Kathleen Sebelius is not an option.
Basically, what remains is the choice between an experienced politician (namely, Senator Biden of Delaware) or someone younger, who would stress the message of change that Obama wants to convey. As Obama is campaigning full time against "business-as-usual" in Washington, DC, Senator Biden is not an option, either.
That shorts the list to someone who would be not too old, not completeley unknown and, possibly, could deliver a swing State.
The reason for this last requirement is that Obama's strategists still boast about a "50-state" strategy, but they know well that, in the end, the race will be closer than expected. They can count on the States where Kerry won in 2004: that is a solid Democratic bloc. Obama, however, is struggling in many swing states, not to mention the "red" ones, and they cannot take many risks.
That bring us, of all places, to Iowa, that joined New Mexico as one of the only two states that voted for President Bush in 2004 after favoring Al Gore four years earlier. Bush over John Kerry by a thin 0.7 per cent. As public opinion has turned strongly against Bush since then, boosting Democrats’ hopes of returning the state to their column, where they had prevailed in the four elections from 1988 through 2000, this is an obvious reason to work there. Just adding Iowa’s electoral votes to the 252 that Kerry had means that Obama is sitting on 259 electoral votes, 11 short of the needed majority of 270.
Iowa doesn' need to have someone in the ticket because Obama built there a strong, well-organized campaign in January, in order to win Iowa’s caucuses, while McCain took politically unpopular positions on key farm-state issues, and skipped the state, a decision for which he may pay a price in November.
The question, therefore, is: which states have 11 Electoral Votes, or more, and can be won adding a popular native politician to the ticket as VP?
The answer tomorrow.
