Yesterday, Washington DC was in a frenzy about Senator Joe Biden being the happy one chosen by Obama as VP. However, Senator Biden left to Georgia on a fact-finding mission, and it would be rather odd for Obama announcing his choice while the candidate is abroad, and not at hand for a photo opportunity.
That leads us to the question: what about the swing states? Basically, Obama needs a state with at least 11 electoral votes, and the obvious candidate would be Indiana. Advantage n. 1: it is close to his home turf, Illinois, where he enjoys a double-digit advantage over McCain. Advantage n. 2: the junior senator there is Evan Bayh, a fifty-something politician who looks younger than his age, is a popular former governor, and is the scion of a respected former senator, Birch Bayh. Advantage n. 3: Bayh has a moderate record, is fond of bipartisanship, and would reinforce Obama's appeal to independent voters.
It's a deal? Not so fast.
Disadvantage n. 1 is that Indiana didn't vote for a Democrat as President since 1964: maybe it will do it again this year, but it's not a safe bet. Disadvantage n. 2:his wife's work on seven corporate boards that paid her more than $837,000 last year and her firm, WellPoint Inc., is part of a medical research partnership awarded a $24.7 million federal grant in May after much lobbying by the Indiana delegation in Congress. NOT a good start when Ethics in Washington is a major concern of voters. Disadvantage n. 3: the militant wing of the Democratic party hates Bayh, who has an habit of voting with the Bush administration in foreign policy matters, and let it known by campaigning furiously against him in the blogosphere.
That leaves us with only one swing state: Virginia, 13 electoral votes that would propel Obama, if things go smoothly, to the White House. Advantage n. 1: the demographic structure of the state changed in the last years, and it became more a Washington's suburb with many youngish liberal voters (in its northern part) and less a backward southern state solidly republican. Advantage n. 2: in the last two years it elected a democratic senator who is a former Republican, Jim Webb, and a popular governor, Tim Kaine. Advantage n. 3: a southern personality in the ticket would appeal to voters in other states that are in play, like Florida.
Here we are! Not quite.
Disadvantage n. 1: again, the state didn't vote for a Democrat as President since 1964. Disadvantage n. 2: the most interesting politician, former Reagan's Secretary of Navy Jim Webb, is not interested in the job. Disadvantage n. 3: Tim Kaine is a nice guy, but he is a first-term governor and he is virtually unknown at the national level.
All this leaves Obama with few choices. Aside from Clinton herself, or Biden, there is only one Democrat who has the right profile, comes from the SouthWest, and has some international experience: former governor of New Mexico Bill Richardson. It would not bring to Obama the 5 electoral votes of his state (New Mexico should go for the Democrats anyway) but he is a latino, an important constituency. He is a former ambassador and was in the Clinton's cabinet, that means experience.
Richardson could be a good choice, but in these matters only one opinion counts: Obama's. And he may want to surprise supporters and voters alike...
