American elections enter in their last lap: within two weeks, both partys will have their nominating conventions, and there are only 48 days left to the moment when polls will open. The media love the format of competion, they crave for personal duels, and nothing excites the journalists pack more than candidates going mano a mano (the bizarre, faux-Italian, slang for "close combat"). This has been even more true this year, when the show has offered TWO competitive horse races: the first between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and the second opposing the latter to John McCain. If you look at Gallup's polls, you see an almost perfectly flat line, usually with Obama 3 points ahead, a dead heat.
This approach neglects the facts that voters, too, want to have their say and hate the focus on "strategy" and "competition" while neglecting the issues. Public opinion remains less compliant that many would love it, and Political Communication is not yet an exact science. While the list of republican successes in manipulating citizens through skillfull propaganda is longer than the Mississippi river, sometimes the "handlers" of politicians fail miserably not because of a lack of professional skill but because they don't register with citizens' fears and hopes.
One should ask: in 2008, which are the key issues in the minds of voters? According to Rasmussen Reports, "79% of voters think that the Economy is of top importance to them, National Security has moved up to the second spot, a very important issue for 66% of voters, up from 61% last month. a few points ahead of Government Ethics and Corruption, a top issue for 65% of Americans."
These numbers do tell a story: voters want change. Change in Iraq (two thirds want the troops home in a short time). Change in the "benign neglect" Congress and the President adopted toward the economy. Change in the "productivity" of institutions, paralyzed by special interests (a polite word for corporations' lobbysts). All this explains Obama's successes. Voters want to turn the page, and McCain's ability in keeping his candidature afloat will not change that.
True, Obama has yet to offer much on these very issues, and his trouble in articulating a response about gasoline's prices, and more generally the economy, is evidence of that. But the elections is still his to lose.
