Gallup's new poll, conducted right after the Republican convention, barely appeared on the firm's home page, and the pundit class started screaming about the "Palin effect," the "new energy" she brought to McCain's campaign, and the new "enthusiasm" of evangelicals for a presidential ticket led by someone they despised.
Well, let's look at the basics.
It is certainly true that McCain for a moment took the lead, after several weeks in which it was "advantage Obama" (most recently 50% to 42%, just one week ago). However, these polls reflect the "bounce" after the convention and really mean that the race is tied, as shown by the new Rasmussen's poll here on our right bar. The turning point will probably arrive with the three debates between the candidates.
More important, the race seem to go in the same direction of the 2000 and 2004 election, that is highly polarized contests in which the two camps count on mobilizing the faithful more than reaching to the independents. Probably about 90 percent of those identifying with a political party will vote for that party's presidential candidate: the exit polls in 2004 showed that John Kerry had won 89 percent of the Democratic vote, George W. Bush 93 percent of the Republican vote. The question is: which one of the camps has more troops?
We know that the Democratic advantage in party identification is now of almost 6 points, according to Rasmussen: during August, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans increased two percentage points to 33.2% while the number of Democrats was little changed at 38.9%. That gives the Democrats a net advantage of 5.7 percentage points.
To gauge the importance of this factor, imagine that in November vote the same 120 million Americans who voted in 2004 (there will be more voters, but we shall look at that issue later). If Obama will keep the share of 90 percent of the Democratic vote, that translates into a huge gap over McCain (41 million votes to 36 million). Even assuming (somehow generously) that McCain will able to bring the same percentage of followers to the polls, while Democratic cohesiveness would be weaker (80%) that still means an advantage for Obama (37 million to 36 million).
And what about independents? In an year of economic hardship as this one, there is no way they will split 50-50 between the two parties: more probably they will go 52-48 for the Democratic candidate, McCain's courtship of them notwithstanding. That means another million votes in the democratic column (Independents are about a third of the voters, as of today).
And there will be new voters, a majority of them pulling the lever for the democratic candidates (remember that turnout in their primaries has been the double than in Republican ones). This will bring another million votes net advantage to Obama.
Question: Can the democrats squander an advantage which is between 3 and 7 MILLION VOTES in the next two months? The answer is: "In theory, that is possible." If you put together a lethargic propaganda, a campaign focused on the economy but short of solid proposals, plus the vicious Republican campaign, it is indeed possible that the Democrats achieve the result of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
However, this would really go against the odds. To win, it is enough for Obama to reassure the constituencies that took part in the primaries, especially women, Latinos and young people: they should give the Democrats a comfortable edge in November's election. Right now, calculations about the electoral college give the Democratic candidate a slim majority (273 votes) but the victory might be much larger, if Obama wins in Ohio, Virginia or Florida, which is quite possible.
If you add to this the real possibility of large majorities in the House and in the Senate, one realizes that there are on the table long-term opportunities for the Democrats, and the possibility of changing American political landscape for a generation, as Ronald Reagan did for Republicans in 1980. This, of course, is a question of leadership but it all depends on how the party leader will conduct himself. Will Obama be up to the task?
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