Obama may have several concerns to think about in the coming weeks but the current financial crisis works for him. Not only because voters tend to blame Republicans over Democrats by a margin of 2 to 1, but because the crash has a disproportionate impact on older people. This is because Social Security is only a thin safety net, and most seniors rely on their 401k, pension plans usually financed by investments in stocks and bonds. These days, several million people see their nest egg vanish by the hour.
Their anger will have an impact in November, and this would be important for Obama who during the primaries had trouble in convincing the 65+, voters. For example, in Indiana they preferred Clinton by a massive 71% to 29%, in Ohio, Hillary crushed him by a whopping 46-point margin in this age group, and Tennessee, Obama got 40 percentage points less than her opponent among old voters.
Obama has a large support among the 18-29 years-old, but this age group usually is less inclined to vote than seniors. In 2004, for example, two over-65 citizens voted for every under-29 one. That means that facing McCain (an appealing figure to seniors, at least because he is over-70 himself) Obama might have had a potentially dangerous weakness in the general election. Seniors count for much in some key states like Florida and Ohio, that in 2000 and in 2004 went to George Bush, tilting the electoral college to Republicans. Now, with their pensions in danger, and a Republican candidate who insists for privatizing even Social Security, Obama chances look much better but many seniors seem not yet ready to trust him: in Pennsylvania and Florida, McCain leads Obama by more than ten points among citizens who are 65 or older.
