Polls, Numbers, And Other Lies

Bob Beckel has an interesting set of numbers here concerning new voters. Pollsters forget to make clear that they poll registered voters, while this year there are several millions of new voters, many of whom have not yet registered. If one has to assess the chances of both candidates in the swing States (the only ones that matter, at this point in the campaign) the first thing to do is to compare the gap between Bush and Kerry in 2004 with the number of new voters. As exit polls during the primaries tell us that two out of three voter under 25 will go for Obama, let's see how many of them are there.

In Ohio, Bush got 120,000 votes more than Kerry in 2004 and there are 750,000 eligible voters between 18 and 22. If two thirds of those register, that means 500,000 new votes that should split roughly 330,000 to Obama and 170,000 to McCain. All other things being equal, Obama has a 180,000 vote advantage, much more than the 120,000-vote margin that gave Ohio tothe  Republicans four years ago.
In Colorado, Kerry lost by 99,000 votes, and in 2008 293,000 young persons between 18 and 22 have become eligible to vote. Again, if 200,000 of those do vote in November, and 130,000 voters go Democratic, the Republican advantage is reduced to 39,000 votes. In Colorado, the Democrats won a Senate seat in 2004, the governorship and several House races in 2006, it's quite possible that the trend continues, putting Obama over the top.
In New Mexico where Gore won in 2000, and Kerry lost by a mere 6,000 votes in 2004, 145,000 youngsters have reached voting age, giving Obama a substantial lift in November.
Last but not least, in Virginia there will be 465,000 people of voting age on November 4, which translates in a conservative estimation of 305,000 new voters, who will bring some 200,000 votes to Obama (Kerry lost by 260,000).

All this means that at least two swing states, Ohio and New Mexico, should go to Obama by virtue of the mobilization of people between 18 and 22 alone. The electoral votes of Ohio alone would be enough to propel Obama to the White House, if he keeps all the states Kerry won in 2004.

____