Another week is over, and a quick assessment would go something like this:
1) Whatever John McCain says, the voters don't believe it, not even if Joe the Plumber supports it.
2) Whatever the Bush administration does, the Wall-Street-types don't believe it for more than a couple of hours.
In other words, this is a crisis of trust in the ability of Republicans of all stripes to solve the economic mess, and this feeling can't possibly turn around before the election.
3) All this is perfectly clear to any conservative with an IQ in the 90-110 range, as shown by the last Matthew Kaminski's column in the Wall Street Journal.
What is interesting in Kaminski's piece is the fact that in his 1300-word column, nowhere the possibility that Barack Obama will NOT be elected is mentioned. The very title, "The Axelrod Method. The 'change' president could be in for a rough ride on Capitol Hill," indicates that while McCain's campaigns launches its last fireworks, conservatives start thinking to a completely different subject: the possible failure of Obama's first term.
Kaminsky writes about the election of Deval Patrick, governor of Massachusetts:
As a path to power, the Axelrod method appears to be the best thing going today. Coming into the 2006 race, Mr. Patrick was a political novice with 1%-2% name recognition in a state that's 6% black . He faced off against a sitting state attorney general favored by the Democratic Party establishment. The former Clinton administration lawyer energized the grass-roots and youth vote with superior organization and stirring oratory. The candidate himself was the message; the campaign dwelled on his personal story, not the issues. (...) Massachusetts never saw anything like it. Mr. Patrick upset the favorite in the Democratic primary and won the general election by 21 points.
Then Kaminski, goes into the details of the difficult relationship between the governor and the Democratic legislature:
That crusading optimism, so critical to his election victory, fast bumped up against established Democratic interests such as the police unions and power brokers on Beacon Hill. They didn't know Mr. Patrick, didn't appreciate him jumping the queue to the governor's chair, didn't buy his reformist outsider message, and frankly liked things as they were. Great speeches or popular support were insufficient for Mr. Patrick to get his way.
And Kaminski makes his final point forecasting "a rough ride" for Obama, when dealing with "the Democratic warhorses on Capitol Hill."
Well, no doubt that the Republican candidate for president will be happy to hear THAT (with still 17 days to go) but let's put aside John McCain's feelings, and discuss the scenario offered by the Wall Street Journal.
First, Kaminski could have found a better example than the one of a first-term governor: in fact, president Carter's relationship with Democratic Congress between 1977 and 1981, would be much more significant.
Jimmy Carter, indeed had trouble in having legislation passed by Congress, as had Bill Clinton in 1993-1995. It would be fair to say that all Democratic presidents, including Franklin Roosevelt, had sooner or later strong difficulties in implementing their agenda because of resistance from Congress. Only Roosevelt in his first term (before the "Court-Packing" episode) and Lyndon Johnson after the 1964 landslide were able to lead Congress in the direction they wanted.
Carter and Clinton, on the contrary, were both governors of backward Southern states, real outsiders in the party. Clinton was more well-connected than Carter, but his first term began in worst possible way, with troubles in confirming his cabinet, and the public relation disaster of gays in the military. Clinton got only 43% of the popular vote, and no senator or representative felt obliged to him for his election.
What about president Obama? If the Democratic ticket wins on November 4, it will be largely because a perfect campaign that has reshaped the political geography of the country. Axelrod's and Plouffes' efforts in mobilizing activists and voters from North Dakota to Louisiana will benefit local Democratic candidates for the House and the Senate, many of whom will enter Congress only because of Obama's coattails.
Obama will win with more than 50% of the popular vote (FiveThirtyEight's forecasts, the best in the business, give him 52%) and a large majority in the electoral college. He will bring to Washington a NEW Democratic majority in the Senate, a majority that today exists only in name (the party controls 49 seats, and only the conditional support of two independents allows Harry Reid to claim the mantle of Senate Majority Leader). Democratic candidates for a senate seat might win in states like Texas, on November 4: will they forget in a minute who is the leader that propelled them over the top? And representative who will win in arch-conservatives districts will give Obama a "rough ride?"
Maybe.
However, a more plausible scenario is that President Obama will start with strong majorities in both houses of Congress, and that the bulk of these senators and representatives will be grateful to him, and decided to implement his agenda to turn the page after eight years of George W. Bush. The sense of urgency created by financial chaos will add to the discipline of the troops, exactly as happened during Franklin Roosevelt's first term. The fact that the mood of the country changed, and that Democrats will be on the verge of a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate will strengthen the administration enormously.
What Barack Obama will be able to do is another matter. Two wars and a depression will tax his abilities enough, Congress will not be the top of his concerns.
