The Race Has Taken Its Shape

Today, The Washington Post has a story about Republicans' strategy that begins this way: "Sen. John McCain and his Republican allies are readying a newly aggressive assault on Sen. Barack Obama's character, believing that to win in November they must shift the conversation back to questions about the Democrat's judgment, honesty and personal associations," One may ask: "And what did they do so far, if not talking about Obama's character and personal associations?" Their entire panoply of TV ads focused on one theme only: "Not Ready to Lead." Remarkably consistent, but not particularly convincing for voters, so far.
Now, the situation in the field is this: Obama has gained a 7-10 point margin over John McCain in the last ten days, depending from the polling organisation, and he seems to be ahead among men and women, among independents, and in all swing states. The financial crisis of the last two weeks, and the first debate, clearly made voters say they are ready to vote for him.
That means he should easily win in November: he will need only to keep the blue States where John Kerry prevailed in 2004, and win in states like Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico where he enjoys comfortable margins in the polls: +5% in Colorado, +11% in Iowa, +8% in New Mexico. That would make 273 votes in the Electoral College, more than the "magic number" of 270. Even a loss in New Hampshire (a vague possibility) would give Obama 269 votes, and a tie which would be decided by the House of Representatives, where Democrats will enjoy a very large margin.
This, however, is an extremely conservative forecast: polls give him good chances of winning in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada and even North Carolina, creating a large majority in the Electoral College for a Democratic President who will have strong Democratic majorities in Congress (the party should pick several seats in the House, and Democrats are on the brink of a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate).
During the last month of campaign everything can happen, but the race has taken its shape: voters are ready for change, as they were in 1980 when they broke for Reagan after a long period of balance between him and incumbent president Jimmy Carter.
John McCain will have a hard time in convincing voters that, on November 4, the main issue should be Obama's character and not the tragic situation of the economy.