A better term of reference may be the 1952 Democratic race, when Senator Estes Kefauver went through the primary process, beat President Truman in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Maryland, going to the Chicago convention with a lead of 257 delegates, with four other contenders trailing behind, including Adlai Stevenson. On the first ballot, Kefauver held the lead but Stevenson (Governor of Illinois) moved up to second place. Then ultimately Stevenson grabbed the designation from Kefauver on the third ballot, despite his failure to contest a single primary, with no accumulated Democratic votes compared to those of Kefauver's, and in spite of his late entry into the race. But the party elders thought he would be the better nominee.
Today, this should have been impossible: the new party rules give to the voters -through the primaries- about 80% of delegates who will go to the convention in Denver. The 1952 scenario (a candidate with a plurality of delegates who DOESN'T get the nomination) should have been impossible in 2008. It should, but... there are two candidates with roughly the same popular support (a slight advantage for Obama there) and superdelegates will play a key role in picking up the nominee.
Unfortunately, this had a bad effect in 1952 (Stevenson lost to Eisenhower 55% to 44%) and would be even worse now: an intraparty war in Denver, largely broadcasted on all American TV screens, would left the party exhausted and demoralized, opening the way to a (still improbable today) McCain's victory.
Unfortunately, this had a bad effect in 1952 (Stevenson lost to Eisenhower 55% to 44%) and would be even worse now: an intraparty war in Denver, largely broadcasted on all American TV screens, would left the party exhausted and demoralized, opening the way to a (still improbable today) McCain's victory.
