Concerning the Democratic candidate who will be nominated at the Convention in Denver, the media are still following the well-established script of a "race" open to all results, a furious contest that will be decided only on the finish line. The reality is completely different. Simple math tells us that Obama's lead in terms of delegates is not going to vanish, nor he can be denied the nomination without something akin to a party coup.
The numbers, courtesy of Real Clear Politics are quite simple: Obama has amassed 1,629 delegates, 132 more than Clinton's 1,497. There has been much talk about Clinton' advantage in obtaining the support of party officials, aka Superdelegates, but this is more wishful thinking than hard fact: Obama has been endorsed by 215 of them, and Hillary by 250, with some 270 of them still uncommitted. Clinton's support among them went down during the last month, her victories in Texas and Ohio notwithstanding.
The reason for this is simple: Superdelegates are politicians in good standing, and they can read the numbers of the popular vote, an area in which the senator from Illinois has a solid lead of about 3% (uncertainty is due to the fluctuating figures of caucuses). Party officials know that, barring a miracle in Pennsylvania, Obama will have more popular votes than Clinton at the end of the primaries season. True, the former First Lady is ahead in the polls there, but not as much as she would need to bridge the gap.
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a staunch Clinton's supporter, painted a bizarre scenario a few days ago: "Let's assume that Sen. Clinton goes ahead in the popular vote count," he said, to offer the idea that Superdelegates could switch to Clinton because of that, even if Obama will enter the Convention with more pledged delegates. However, "Clinton will have to close a deficit of more than 700,000 votes," as The Politico pointed out. That means that Clinton should win by huge margins in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, while holding Obama to modest gains in states where he is ahead, like North Carolina and Oregon. (More)
The numbers, courtesy of Real Clear Politics are quite simple: Obama has amassed 1,629 delegates, 132 more than Clinton's 1,497. There has been much talk about Clinton' advantage in obtaining the support of party officials, aka Superdelegates, but this is more wishful thinking than hard fact: Obama has been endorsed by 215 of them, and Hillary by 250, with some 270 of them still uncommitted. Clinton's support among them went down during the last month, her victories in Texas and Ohio notwithstanding.
The reason for this is simple: Superdelegates are politicians in good standing, and they can read the numbers of the popular vote, an area in which the senator from Illinois has a solid lead of about 3% (uncertainty is due to the fluctuating figures of caucuses). Party officials know that, barring a miracle in Pennsylvania, Obama will have more popular votes than Clinton at the end of the primaries season. True, the former First Lady is ahead in the polls there, but not as much as she would need to bridge the gap.
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a staunch Clinton's supporter, painted a bizarre scenario a few days ago: "Let's assume that Sen. Clinton goes ahead in the popular vote count," he said, to offer the idea that Superdelegates could switch to Clinton because of that, even if Obama will enter the Convention with more pledged delegates. However, "Clinton will have to close a deficit of more than 700,000 votes," as The Politico pointed out. That means that Clinton should win by huge margins in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, while holding Obama to modest gains in states where he is ahead, like North Carolina and Oregon. (More)
