In the media storm about Ohio, Texas, and a politically-born-again Hillary, the newspapers overlooked a significant poll by the respected Cook Political Report. The poll, published on Tuesday, shows that in the hypothetical general election match up, Obama holds a nine point lead over John McCain, 47% to 38%, with 15 percent of voters undecided or supporting others. This reverses the result of similar polls conducted in December, when McCain led 44% to 37%, and substantially increases the advantage Obama had in January (45 to 43, a statistical tie).Apparently, each candidate is able to win among his own party members by equal proportions. McCain won among Republicans and those independents who lean toward the GOP by a 64-point margin, 77-33 percent, Obama won among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by the same 64 points, 74 to 10 percent. Obama, however, has a significant lead among "pure" independents, those who don't love either party: 11 points, 46 to 35 percent.
Obama leads McCain among women by 20 points, 51 to 31 percent. McCain leads among men, but only slightly, 45 to 43 percent, again a statistical tie. Twelve percent of men, and 18 percent of women, are undecided. Obama leads McCain significantly among 18-34 year olds, 58 to 27 percent. Things are closer with 35-49 year olds and 50-64 year olds, with McCain leading 43 to 42 percent and 38 to 36 percent. Predictably, Obama leads in every region except the South, where McCain leads by 9 points, 47 to 38 percent.
We should remember that, before Reagan transformed politics in America, Democrats were the normal majority and Republicans could only win if Democrats were split, or if Republicans could win over the majority of Independents. Democrats today are not divided over any issue or set of values, and self-identification with the party recently jumped to 41.5%, the highest total on record in decades. Just 31.8% of voters consider themselves to be Republicans. The partisan gap—a 9.7 percentage point advantage for the Democrats—is by far the largest it has ever been. Even if the fight for the nomination between Obama and Clinton goes on, pollsters find no issues barrier blocking a Clinton supporter from voting Obama in the general election, or vice versa. Republicans' slim hopes therefore depend on McCain's long-standing appeal to Independent voters, but the state of the economy will probably push this constituency toward the Democrats, too.
