March 6, 2008

LET'S CRUNCH SOME NUMBERS


With 99% of the votes counted in Texas, it looks as though the number of votes in the Democratic primary will largely exceed the number of votes cast for Al Gore in 2000, and match John Kerry's vote total for the 2004 general election. Kerry received 2,832,704 votes in Texas in 2004. At this writing, Clinton and Obama are at 2,812,289 between them. A primary that has a party turnout similar, or larger, than a general election is simply unprecedented in American politics and, indeed, Republicans voters on March 4 were about ONE THIRD of the voters who supported Bush in the 2004 general election.
Let's look at the 2004 Presidential Primary: four years ago Kerry got about 560,000 votes, Edwards 120,000, Dean 40,000 and other candidates about 115,00 for a grand total of 835.000 ballots cast. That is two million less than the number of votes cast this year. Or, Democratic voters seem to be this year more than three times the number they were in 2004. Hillary Clinton received more votes than all Republican candidates combined in Texas last night, Barack Obama received nearly as many. Clinton doubled the vote total of Republican nominee John McCain, Obama nearly did as well.
Remember, this is Texas, home of George W. Bush, who got 61% of the vote in 2004. Here, no Democratic candidate for President won the state's electoral votes since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Democrats haven't won a Senate race since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, or a Governor's race since Ann Richards in 1990. Next Fall, observers may well throw their political maps out of the window.