It was good night for senator Hillary Clinton, all the more so because of Texas's and Ohio's exit polls. According to NBC's interviews, she had her usual strong support from women, and won white males in both states (see "Will 2008 Be a Remake of 2004? The Role of Working Class White Men" below). In Texas, she prevailed in this key constituency,50% to 48% and in Ohio with the larger majority of 58% to 39%. This gives her a strong rationale for continuing her campaign, because her major liability -the difficult relationship with white male voters- seems to fade. At the same time, one of Obama's most important assets -his ability to speak to a constituency that has been mostly favorable to Republicans in the last decade- is weakened.
Barack Obama made a great effort to win the Latino vote, but apparently he failed. The Texas Latino turnout was very large and these voters went Clinton in a landslide: 67% to 31%. And if Latinos will vote at this level in November Texas, that went by a large margin to Republicans in the last 32 years, would become a Democratic state (sealing victory for the Democratic candidate, whoever he or she is).
At the time of this writing, it is too early to say where the delegate count rests. Vermont and Rhode Island (where there were also primaries) cancel each other out. So it comes down to Texas and Ohio, but it is not clear whether Clinton has eaten into Obama's lead: it is still possible that he had won the delegate count last night. In this case, Clinton would have ended her good night with an important psychological result, but without making ground where it actually matters for the convention.
The good news for the party is that Democrats turned out in droves again: in 2008 the mobilization factor seems to be largely on the Democratic side. The bad news is that the enthusiasm must survive what can become a bitter political fight in the next weeks, or even months. Now, Obama has to prove that he can bounce back from his setbacks. He has had a charmed political season and a little political adversity is important to prepare for the brawl in the Fall. For Hillary Clinton, as the New York Times writes this morning, "the battle ahead is not so much against Mr. Obama as it is against a Democratic Party establishment that had once been ready to coalesce behind her but has been drifting toward Mr. Obama. The party wants a standard-bearer now."
