One field of political communication that developed enormously in the last 20 years is related to TV commercials attacking political competitors: "negative campaigning" in the professional jargon. While there is no consensus on the general effect of smear tactics, several scholars maintain that they indeed damage the political process, shrinking and polarizing the electorate. What seems certain is that politicians hit by them, particularly if they are slow or timid in responding, do lose support. There are few doubts that Michael Dukakis's campaign was put in disarray by the "Willie Horton" and "Dukakis in the tank" commercials, produced by George Bush's consultants in 1988.Compared to those, or to the "Swift Boat" ad aired by Republicans in 2004 against John Kerry, the "It's 3 AM and the telephone is ringing" commercial broadcasted in Texas by Hillary Clinton was not stronger than a cup of tea. And, in truth, it did not prevent Democrats from breaking any previous record of mobilization in Texas. However, while the last polls predicted a tie, with Obama catching up and maybe surpassing her, in the end it was the former First Lady who won. Part of her success can be explained by the effect of the commercial on precisely those voters it targeted, the Democrats and Independents, mostly female, who made up their mind only at the last minute.
The exit polls suggest that Obama and Clinton were tied among Democrats who made up their mind early (50-49), but there is evidence that she won handily among those voters who decided in the last three days, that is when her attacks were hitting Obama the hardest. In this category (one voter in five) Hillary got 60% of ballots, a huge margin. A pocket calculator is enough to show that it was this group which put her over the top, 51% to 47%. Obama's campaign responded, and You Tube quickly filled up with spoofs and parodies. No matter, the ad worked where it was supposed to work. Remember that before making any predictions about the results in November.
